At Apprentice-Ed, our population actuarial projections cause us to believe China has a 45% chance of failing on or before Sept 1, 2030. Apprentice-Ed, and the world, will have to take over the clients for a number of China-related businesses in America, and in other countries. We have to prepare for that eventuality. The following summarizes our research, pointing to this ultimate dropout of China from the world stage.

Quick rise. quick fall; The “one-child” rule scrunched the size of the “flower”, which is shutting down the population.

The population shrinkage is causing 1) massive numbers of new vacant homes, and 2) massive increases national debt per worker.

PUZZLE - OUR POPULATION ACTUARIAL MODEL SHOWS 16 MILLION DEATHS PER YEAR. CHINA REPORTS 12 MILLION DEATHS PER YEAR. NOT POSSIBLE ACTUARIALLY - DEATH RATES APPLIED TO NUMBER ALIVE GIVES DEATHS NUMBER. CHINA IS UNDERSTATING THE DEATHS NUMBERS - MANY SAY THEIR BIRTH NUMBERS FOR 2012 TO NOW ARE OVERSTATED. REAL POPULATION NOW MAY BE 1.38 BILLION, OR LESS. ANNUAL DECLINE IS 16 MILLION DEATHS MINUS 9 MILLION BIRTHS = 7 MILLION DROP ANNUALLY. A LOT MORE HOUSES GOING VACANT EACH YEAR.

FOR STABILITY, NEED 23 MILLION BIRTHS EACH YEAR (LONG TERM, ARE OLDER POPULATION). GETTING 9 MILLION BIRTHS PER YEAR.

6.5 MILLION MARRIAGES THIS YEAR (LOW), SALARIES SLASHED AGAIN. UNHAPPY PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE LOTS OF BABIES. BY 2030, FOLLOWING TREND, BY 2030 MARRIAGES WILL BE DOWN TO 3.5 MILLION. USA MARRIAGES ARE 2.2 MILLION. YIKES! CHINA MARRIAGES SHOULD BE FOUR TIMES USA.