ACTUARIAL PREDICTION BY 2030 - 45% PROBABILITY
A likely result will be a mass exodus from China, hundreds of millions fleeing a broken bunch of idiots.
The Helmsman? Driving the ship onto the rocks.
“Fanaticism consists of redoubling your effort when you have forgotten your aim.”
George Santayana, 1950s - Still true today, for radicals, fools, and far-lefts. And pretenders to immortality in China.
CHINA IS FAILING - WATCH THE SLIPPERY SLIDE - 45% ACTUARIAL CHANCE BY SEPT 1, 2030
WOMEN IN CHINA HAVE A BABY RATE OF 1.0 BABIES PER WOMAN. 500 MILLION FARMERS HAVE A BABY RATE OF 1.7 BABIES PER WOMAN. 900 MILLION CITY DWELLERS HAVE A BABY RATE OF 0.61 BABIES PER WOMAN.
CHINESE CITIES WILL BECOME EMPTY GHOST CITIES SOON AT 0.61 BABY RATE.
Apprentice-Ed, and the world, will have to take over massive numbers of clients for a number of China-related businesses in America, and in other countries. We have to prepare for that eventuality. The following summarizes our actuarial research, pointing to this irreversible dropout of China from the world stage.
At Apprentice-Ed, our recently-completed actuarial population projections cause us to believe China has a 45% chance of failing on or before Sept 1, 2030. Chance is rising steadily every year.
1) China no longer can build more homes to artificially inflate their GDP to $17 trillion; because of this, China GDP will likely shrink under $10 trillion by Sept 1, 2030 - that, plus their massive $57 trillion admitted debt, will cause collapse.
2) Keep watching shrinking marriages and reducing births each year. Keep watching for more 20% cutbacks in salary, will intensify. This is deflation in action.
The drain hole of population is getting bigger very quickly. Sept 1, 2030 is our actuarial prediction for 45% chance of failure.
The population shrinkage is causing 1) massive reduction in GDP; 2) massive numbers of new vacant homes; 3) fewer skilled workers available; and 4) massive increases national debt per worker far over US 408%.
POPULATION SHRINKAGE: THE DRAIN HOLE IS BIG AND GETTING BIGGER
The “one-child” rule 1980 - 2015 scrunched the size of the “flower” - women at baby-bearing age shrank: the current plummeting marriages are further reducing the number of babies from this “Flower” group. If marriages continue shrinking to 3.5 million in 2030, and the baby rate is 1.0 per married woman, then these women in 2030 will have 3.5 million babies, and the total “flower” ladies will have perhaps 7 million babies per year - China needs 23 million babies per year. Seven million babies per year is a huge catastrophe. Our actuarial model predicts 3 million babies per year later on.
China Births and Deaths Fakery: Our population model parallels the China population in several ways, mean age 40 (rising to 50 steadily, then 60), life expectancy 78, we started with reported actual births per year from 1950 going forward. We believe our model. We use US Social Security death rates - applying these to the population alive at each age, we get 16 million deaths per year in 2024, and increasing. This has to be right. China has been reporting a steady 12 million deaths per year - this has to be faked. Death rates increase quickly as people age. China’s population is now shrinking by more than 7 million per year, shrinking by 10 million per year by 2030, and more shrinkage coming.
The drain hole is getting bigger. GDP is shrinking. We are all watching the slow but certain collapse of the last of the Cold War Communists.
In our actuarial opinion, this death spiral of China is not reversible. Even slowing it down is problematic. It could speed up dramatically at any time.
Can you imagine having every second home on your street vacant? And you trying to sell?
The main business of provinces (like our states) is selling land to developers to build houses, but no-one wants to build?
So now Xi Jinping is pressing provinces hard to come up with money for his global spending ambitions. But the golden goose is empty.
Now, Xi Jinping cannot make payroll.
The China National Debt per worker salary is 1,200%, compared to USA 408% - China just now chopped salary 20% since this chart done
Rate will go up to 6,000%. Not possible, China collapsing.
Look at the “Flower” size, for say 2030 - about 112 million women. Baby rate is 1.0 for all of China.
Then reduce that by more than half because only married Chinese women have babies - all rest aborted (43% abortion rate) Now 60 million.
And only a small fraction of Chinese women are getting married - 6.5 million 2024, many farmers. Chart above suggests the 6.5 will fall to 3.5 by 2030. USA has 2.2 million marriages.
Then consider, 500 million farmers have 1.7 baby rate - means very few city women have any babies. The farmer babies likely to remain farmers forever. Cities will go childless, get old.
Cuts city worker pool quickly.
If you were a young woman in the City, house prices are high (government controls); your salary is being cut, and cut again, by half; many young, such as your husband, are unemployed (22%); national debt is plain scary; deflation is hitting country; government is being rejected around the world; would you get married, have a baby?
Government now threatening mass layoffs.
Huge companies fleeing from China, get other-country sourcing closer to America.
If you were a woman, a couple, would you bring a baby into a China City, this collapsing world?
At the end, farmers will once again dominate China, the great cities will be empty
CHINA FAILURE CHANCE - 45% BY SEPT 1, 2030 - DEFLATION (CUT SALARIES 40% IN 3 YEARS),
GDP FALLING - TO $11 TRILLION USD? - WATCH
POPULATION - WATCH BIRTHS, WORLD RANK
The Great China Communist experiment lies in tatters, the last of the Cold War Communists are dying.
Gung ho indeed.
The Helsman Xi Jinping has driven the mighty China ship onto the rocks, along with his partner Barack Obama - partners since 2013, great economists both.