Apprentice-Ed, and the world, will have to take over the clients for a number of China-related businesses in America, and in other countries. We have to prepare for that eventuality. The following summarizes our actuarial research, pointing to this irreversible dropout of China from the world stage.
At Apprentice-Ed, our recently-completed actuarial population projections cause us to believe China has a 45% chance of failing on or before Sept 1, 2030. Chance is rising steadily every year.
1) China no longer can build more homes to artificially inflate their GDP to $17 trillion; because of this, China GDP will likely shrink under $10 trillion by Sept 1, 2030 - that, plus their massive $57 trillion admitted debt, will cause collapse.
2) Keep watching shrinking marriages and reducing births each year. Keep watching for more 20% cutbacks in salary, will intensify. This is deflation in action.
The drain hole of population is getting bigger very quickly. Sept 1, 2030 is our actuarial prediction for 45% chance of failure.
The population shrinkage is causing 1) massive reduction in GDP; 2) massive numbers of new vacant homes; 3) fewer skilled workers available; and 3) massive increases national debt per worker far over US 408%.
POPULATION SHRINKAGE: THE DRAIN HOLE IS BIG AND GETTING BIGGER
The “one-child” rule 1980 - 2015 scrunched the size of the “flower” - women at baby-bearing age shrank: the plummeting marriages are further reducing the number of babies. If marriages continue shrinking to 3.5 million in 2030, and the baby rate is 1.0 per married woman, then these women in 2030 will have 1.8 million babies, and the total “flower” ladies will have perhaps 5 million babies per year - China needs 23 million babies per year. Five million babies per year is a huge catastrophe.
China Births and Deaths Fakery: Our population model parallels the China population in several ways, mean age 40 (rising to 50 steadily, then 60), life expectancy 78, we started with reported actual births per year from 1950 going forward. We believe our model. We use US Social Security death rates - applying these to the population alive at each age, we get 16 million deaths per year in 2024, and increasing. This has to be right. China has been reporting a steady 12 million deaths per year - this has to be faked. Death rates increase quickly as people age. China’s population is now shrinking by more than 7 million per year, shrinking by 10 million per year by 2030, and more shrinkage coming.
The drain hole is getting bigger. GDP is shrinking. We are all watching the collapse of the last Communists.