A PETE QUOTE
George Santayana said in 1950
“Fanaticism consists of redoubling your effort when you have forgotten your aim.”
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
China Failing:
The tongs and triads of China are sensing major economic failure by Xi Jinping in China
GDP will fall below $10 trillion when the 120 million empty homes are counted as negatives,
watching their population decline to 800 million by 2050 and 300 million by 2100;
worse than the one-child policy is the 43% abortion rate now standard and the 1.1 babies per woman result:
1) nine million births in 2024 times; but that nine million will be 4.5 million next generation, 2.2 million the next generation, so population in 2100 is really 300 million.
2) 6.5 million marriages in 2024 when each woman has only 1.1 children means future population of 300 million (6.5 million marriages means 3.2 million babies, times 80 life expectancy is 250 million population) - even less
3) 600 million empty homes by 2100 - 75% of total homes.
4) the on-the-move CCP tongs and triads are the major supplier of invasion and fentanyl through Mexico to America.
5) Xi Jinping’s CCP has been trying to escape a failing China with the Belt and Road Initiative
but countries are seeing only increased debt loads - coercive business is failing - see Mexico
6) $40 trillion admitted debt against a real $10 trillion GDP. 4 to 1.
USA is about 1.2 to 1. See the problem?
Prior Leaders Who Tried Rapid Expansion
The vast majority of leaders who attempted world domination by business, by armies, by threats, has ended up bankrupting their own country. Julius Caesar; Napoleon; USSR failed 37 years ago, Hannibal; British Empire; Spanish Empire; Empire of Japan; Hitler; the old Russian Empire - the Tsars ended badly;
Cleopatra, who moved slowly and beneficially, like China used to move long ago, before Xi Jinping. And Genghis Khan, who killed everybody in sight with a massive army in from 1200 to 1224 - birth of the Mongol Empire..
Those who now expand quickly bankrupt their own country, and end soon thereafter.
Before 2012, the Chinese expanded slowly and cautiously, then Xi Jinping went ballistic speed on GDP growth and world expansion, when he joined up with Obama on Xi Jinping’s 2013 election.
The trick to grow GDP quickly was to produce vast numbers of homes in China. If you know that one real estate construction job produces 12 - 15 other jobs, you see that a $1 trillion investment authorized to developers by the provinces of China produced a $6 trillion addition to GDP. Great! China then borrowed, and lent, based on this result. And a whole lot of Globalist companies are deeply mired in the Chinese massive debts - not the $40 trillion admitted, but the much larger “dark debt”
So let’s look at the current China $17 trillion GDP as being $7 trillion rel estate related, and $10 trillion other than real estate.
The $10 trillion is real, the $7 trillion is fake, puffery. The houses being built are empty, empty, empty. Huge economic downturns later arising from these empty homes.
The Chinese now face enormous problems related to the $40 trillion of admitted debts they have - four times their “real” GDP of $10 trillion. Then add on the “dark debt” - much larger, so many Global corporations and big US Banks - WHERE IS THE DOGE? YOU NEED A PERSONAL INVITATION? CHECK THE BIG BANKS VERY, VERY, CAREFULLY. CHECK CHASE BANK FOR LOANS TO/WITH JP MORGAN AND CLIENTS, IS THAT CLEAR ENOUGH?
DODD-FRANK ALLOWED THIS. AND DODD-FRANK KILLED SMALL BANKS.
From 2012 to 2021, this went along very swimmingly, then it didn’t. The music stopped. No developer wants to build.
A proper accounting would have been to include the full $17 trillion in GDP, but then adjust this downwards by the $7 trillion, to a net of $10 trillion.
Similarly, in America we count all of Apple’s income as GDP, but we really should be subtracting out for Apple’s shifting all their profits overseas. But we don’t.
Economics lesson over, China is in for a long period of tiny interest rates, a horrific experience with house prices since over 30% are empty and that percentage will increase to 80% - did I mention the biggest asset of most Chinese is their home?
So, all Chinese should thank Xi Jinping for ruining their home value with his rash race to oblivion.
The tongs are coming, the tongs are coming. And they ain’t named Paul Revere.
Xi Jinping Today and Tomorrow - Slipping Down Slope
The partnership formed by Obama and Xi Jinping in 2012, that exists even today, has caused Xi Jinping to think he is invincible, to think that he can claim forever because he has an idiot American slug as a partner. That is why Xi Jinping seized permanent power.
You can’t fix stupid.
Hitler listened to his generals, who fed him what he wanted to hear. Hitler smashed over 1,000 eye-glasses, his use of drugs increased rapidly.
Xi Jinping felt threatened enough to escort the biggest tong leader out of the meeting a year ago. This, to us, is a measure of weakness, not strength.
The tongs and their triads sense the Xi Jinping weakness.
The tongs see massively failed initiatives.
The tongs have been around far longer than the 5’9” Zi Jinping.
The tongs are hunting now, developing their own fentanyl plans, trying to keep wealth.
Opportunity For Us
Hundreds of millions of small business jobs around the world will open up on the collapsing of China. Doesn’t matter if Xi Jinping is replaced or if China collapses. China is doomed.
Apprentice-Ed will be ready, and work for you.
Inside China, we can spearhead a massive small business push. All over the world, we can connect producers with buyers, change pricing, offer our experienced services.
Wait for it. It is coming, and relatively soon. Watch for the tongs grabbing power, and Xi Jinping’s reaction. He has a lot to answer for.
Thinking bigger about this, this will be a human tragedy of unparalleled size. We should start thinking of helping. We show some weak thoughts below. But really hard to implement with a guy who is the type George Santayana wrote about in 1950.
“Fanaticism consists of redoubling your effort when you have forgotten your aim.”
A Plan To Recover China
APPENDIX D: THE HELMSMAN CAN SAVE CHINA (From Lo Siento 100-Year Lease Document)
We are witnessing the decline of China, but the lava has not reached us, so we are still spectators. We are in the time of the decline of China. I have maybe one partial one way to solve this, to have the Helmsman recognize the mighty Chinese ship he guided so carefully and so controlled, against so many obstacles, is now close to shore.
What is needed is a tugboat Captain, to land the ship. Different rules are needed on reaching the shore. Xi Jinping will always be known as the Helmsman, and will be the boss.
Break up China into five countries, spokes of half a bicycle wheel centered on Bejing – Black, White, Red, Yellow, and Indigo qing. Allow 400 million small independent businesses through Biz-4-Me. Raise salaries by five times for workers – from 15,000 yuan to 75,000 yuan. US levels.
Create an internal economy, internal demand, learn to massively increase imports. Pull back outside the five Chinas. Relax a bit, smile. It is out of your hands. This is land, not ocean.
Ease up on the controlling, you are ashore now. Restrict the tongs, triads, and warlords of yore. Market the ghost cities to become a destination. Share. Respect your countrymen, it is time for a kindler and gentler leader. You are on land, and China needs lots and lots of babies now.
Ask China families to change their perception of being pregnant in this new land of hope: mothers need to speak to daughters in this new successful, hope-floats China. The dialogue could go:
“Daughter, if you get pregnant, please come to me first. I want you to give birth to my grandson, to give birth to my granddaughter, and I will bring that baby up. You are always the mother, and we will respect your child as our own. Later, when you are settled and wealthier, you can take over the mother duties, or not, as you choose. But that child is your child, and my treasured grandson and my treasured granddaughter, and will always be revered as part of our family. We treasure and adore our family. A husband is not necessary in this circumstance – a treasured grandson or granddaughter is necessary.”
Ask the world to support the Yuan for the new five countries during a twenty-year transition.
Before we pledge support, China must declare forgiveness of the $17 trillion of US debt -- US Treasuries directly and indirectly held by China.
The Helmsman will be forever revered as The Helmsman – he has brought the mighty Chinese ship to shore, safe and sound. Statues needed please.
This is not the end of the Han Dynasty, the Han people; this is the door that opened, on reaching land, for the next saga of the Han people.
All of the above is based on probability, and risk identification, risk measurement, risk mediation, and will require risk follow up. Promote 10,000 risk actuaries, then follow their advice.
Easy-peasy. Gung ho. Actuarial knowledge.